Padraic Larkin - Wednesday, September 01, 2010
At the end of July the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA) published its State of the Climate Report for 2009. The report looked at 10 key indicators of climate change and the results all point to the same finding: the scientific evidence that our world is warming is unmistakable. More than 300 scientists from 160 research groups in 48 countries contributed to the report, which confirms that the past decade was the warmest on record and that the Earth has been growing warmer over the last 50 years.
Based on comprehensive data from multiple sources, the report defines 10 measurable planet-wide features used to gauge global temperature changes. The relative movement of each of these indicators proves consistent with a warming world.
1.Climate models predicted that air temperature over land would increase – the temperature continues to increase.
2.Models predicted that sea surface temperatures would increase – they are increasing.
3.Models also predicted that the air temperature over oceans would increase – it continues to increase.
4.Sea levels were predicted to rise – they continue to rise.
5.The heat stored in the oceans was predicted to increase – it is increasing.
6.Humidity levels were to increase – they are increasing
7.The temperature of the active weather layer around the earth (troposphere) was predicted to increase – it is increasing.
8.Ice cover in the arctic was predicted to decline – it is declining.
9.Glaciers were predicted to retreat – they are retreating
10.Spring snow cover in the Northern hemisphere was predicted to reduce – it has reduced.
“For the first time, and in a single compelling comparison, the analysis brings together multiple observational records from the top of the atmosphere to the depths of the ocean,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D.,Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “The records come from many institutions worldwide. They use data collected from diverse sources, including satellites, weather balloons, weather stations, ships, buoys and field surveys. These independently produced lines of evidence all point to the same conclusion: our planet is warming,”
The report emphasizes that human society has developed for thousands of years under one climatic state, and now a new set of climatic conditions are taking shape. These conditions are consistently warmer, and some areas are likely to see more extreme events like severe drought, torrential rain and violent storms.
Meanwhile a heat wave in Russia has killed thousands of people there, reduced the grain harvest by over 25% and cut an estimated $15 billion off their GDP. Floods in Pakistan are endangering millions of people and have destroyed animals and crops across wide areas of the country – the death toll is unknown and aid agencies are finding it difficult to cope. The link is obvious despite the reticence of climate scientists to say that these individual events are due to global climate change.
You may wonder, in light of these extreme events, what the governments of the world are doing to address the problem. The answer is that they are doing very little. The UN negotiations in Bonn for a post-Kyoto climate deal moved backwards rather than forwards with many countries retreating to old entrenched positions and the American Senate abandoned plans for comprehensive climate change legislation.
Climate models predict that average global temperatures may rise by over 6 degrees above pre-industrial levels unless there is a major reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. At these temperatures the very future of mankind on the planet is threatened. How many more catastrophes do we need before we begin to take this issue seriously?
The full NOAA report is available at http://www.climate.gov/#understandingClimate
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